Top 5 takeaways from Tuesday’s Indiana and North Carolina results and coverage
5. Overplaying General Election Polling
The Clinton campaign, and her surrogates, are now saying Hillary should be the nominee because national polls suggests that she would beat John McCain 6 months from now. Let’s look at what polls have said in the past. In February 2007, Hillary Clinton (according to Real Clear Politics) lead Barack Obama 37.4% to 17.8%.
By the end of October, the polling showed 48.5% for Clinton and 21.2% for Obama and on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, she was up 44.2 to 24.2. The more the country got to know Senator Obama, the more they came to like him. The same will hold true in the run up to the General Election.
One of the pundits tonight referred to Michael Dukakis’ lead of 17 points over George Bush between the conventions. We all know how that turned out.
Pro-Choice white women…will not risk John McCain appointing renegade anti-abortion judges under the guise of strict constrictionist.
4. They’re Downplaying North Carolina
Do you remember how giddy everyone was when Hillary Clinton won by “double-digits?” How Pennsylvania was a mandate for Clinton because she won by 10 points. But she didn’t win by 10 points, it was more like 9.2%. She won by 214,000 votes. It was the great comeback.
Fast Forward to North Carolina. Barack Obama will win the Tar Heel State by 220,000 votes. That talk about it as if it is an afterthought. In the Democratic Primary all states are not created equal and none of them are winner take all. North Carolina was much more important and Obama won by a much wider margin. The mainstream media is letting Hillary get away with a “tie” for the evening when she’s lucky to get a delegate tie in Indiana.
What difference does it make who won Indiana? She didn’t win Texas, but they act like she did. The only person I heard telling the real story on the results were David Gergen and Jeffrey Toobin on CNN. Most of the night you got shameful comments like this one by Campbell Brown:
For the last couple of weeks it was all about the gas tax, her (Clinton) push and that really seemed to resonate for her constituency.
Well anything she says will resonate with her constituency. That goes for any candidate. But there is nothing in the polling data that suggests that her “gas tax holiday” helped in either primary. Barack Obama won North Carolina by a larger margin than anyone predicted, and the razor thin margin Clinton won Indiana was smaller than most had prognosticated.
But all I heard was that Hillary Clinton got the win she needed. Hillary Clinton will fall behind by 15 more delegates and 200,000 popular votes to Obama. She didn’t get anything.
3. Distorted Portrayal of White Working Class
There are two Democratic Presidential candidates. They are two good candidates, and there are certain voters who like each. Some working class white voters like Clinton and some that Obama. There are union voters that like Clinton and there are union voters like Obama.
When the general election comes around, union voters will vote for the Democratic candidate. Union voters and African-Americans are the most reliable voting blocks in the Democratic Party. I know all working class voters are not members of unions, but no one thinks that union voters will somehow vote for John McCain because Obama is “elitest.” It didn’t go that way in 2004 with John Kerry, and it’s not likely to happen in November with Barack Obama.
2. Grubbing for Michigan and Florida
Last Summer, I attended the Young Democrats of American National Convention. I left that meeting understanding one thing: that THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY would penalize Michigan and Florida for moving up their primaries. All of these young, Democratic loyalists from the DNC were in workshops telling their faithful why it was important that the Michigan and Florida delegates not be seated.
Twenty two hundred and nine (2209) is the new delegate count that the Clinton people are trying to get us to start reporting as the number needed to secure the Democratic nomination. Throughout this process the number has been 2025 according to the Democratic National Committee, and now all of a sudden the Clinton folks change the rules.
1. Don’t forget White Women (Obama Girls)
Don’t forget that 55% of these “working class white voters” are women. White women have shown they are willing to vote for Barack Obama. In Ohio Obama received 31% the votes from white women (CNN Exit Polls) and 32% in Pennsylvania. In Indiana that number was up to 39%. That’s a big deal.
When it comes down to it liberal, pro-choice white women -no matter how much they believe in Hillary- will not risk John McCain appointing renegade anti-abortion judges under the guise of strict constrictionist.
